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2019 Federal Election
Now that the Federal Election is underway, there will be countless promises pledges spin and utter bullshit. With both sides hurling criticisms and sledges padded with innuendos and deceptions.
There are 151 seats in the House of Representatives up for grabs. The major mud slingers are not going to appear in each and every electorate around the country.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has spent quite a bit of time in western Sydney, the south coast of New South Wales, Tasmania, parts of Melbourne and WA.
Some of those spots have been traditional electoral battlegrounds for many decades, but after the electoral wipe-out for the Liberals in the Victorian state election last year, we might see more canvassing for votes there throughout the campaign.
The Prime Minister has also spent time in Tasmania in recent weeks, reflecting the Liberal Party’s optimism that it might be able to target Labor-held seats in the state’s north.
Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack has been focussed on his own electorate of Riverina, but also other Nationals seats such as Cowper, which has a retiring National MP.
The Opposition doesn’t have to sandbag seats in the same way the Coalition does, and it’s already notionally picked up two seats from the Government in the latest round of seat redistributions.
Both Bill Shorten and Tanya Plibersek have been hitting the streets of Melbourne hard.
The Labor leader has also looked to western Sydney, Townsville — where the electorate of Herbert is his party’s most marginal — and parts of Perth, where Labor believes it could find rich electoral pickings.
The seats to watch
Here’s a look at the 38 seats in Victoria, with margins based on Antony Green’s analysis of the redistribution.
- Corangamite: Liberal 0.03 per cent — It’s a tough ask for former ABC journalist Sarah Henderson to hold on.
- Dunkley: Liberal-held, notionally Labor 1.3 per cent — Rookie MP Chris Crewther is in big danger of becoming a one-term pollie.
- La Trobe: Liberal 3.5 per cent — Comeback MP Jason Wood is big on law and order and will be hoping to lock this seat up for another term, under significant pressure.
- Chisholm: Liberal 3.4 per cent — No incumbent running with Julia Banks’s defection from the Liberal Party. Labor and Liberal both have Chinese-Australian candidates in an area with a significant Asian population. Labor is well placed.
- Indi: Independent 4.1 per cent vs Liberal — Cathy McGowan is hanging up the boots and has anointed an independent successor. Is this an opportunity for the Coalition to get Indi back? Campaign resources are an issue for the Liberals.
- Macnamara (was Melbourne Ports): Labor 1.3 per cent — A three-horse race, which the Greens are going to make a big effort for. Labor has a new candidate, but aren’t too worried. Liberals bombed in the area at state level.
If the dam breaks…
- Casey: Liberal 4.5 per cent — Speaker Tony Smith is well respected in Parliament but if Labor secures big swings he might be the one getting ejected.
- Deakin: Liberal 6.3 per cent — Dutton backer Michael Sukkar will be targeted for his involvement in the Turnbull coup. A strong local campaigner who knows he has to fight.
- Flinders: Liberal 7.2 per cent — This is a safe seat for Health Minister Greg Hunt but these are strange times for the Liberal Party. It would take a remarkable swing for Labor to win but Julia Banks as an independent complicates the contest.
- Higgins: Liberal 10.2 per cent vs Labor and 7.8 per cent vs Green — Kelly O’Dwyer isn’t standing, the swing at the state level against the Liberals was large and the Greens’ Jason Ball complicates the race. There may not be a result for days.
- Kooyong: Liberal 12.8 per cent — The Treasurer shouldn’t have any problems, but he will have to put up a larger fight than usual.
- Aston: Liberal 7.6 per cent — Outer-suburban Liberal territory, SPEC problems are not as pronounced here. Minister Alan Tudge should hold on.
- Melbourne: Greens 19 per cent — Adam Bandt has built a fortress he should retain, but his party did suffer swings at a state level last year.
- Bendigo: Labor 3.9 per cent — The margin probably makes it look closer than it is. Lisa Chester is well placed for another term.
- Cooper (was Batman): 0.6 per cent Labor vs Greens — Once safe Labor territory, the seat has been under threat from the Greens for several terms. But internal problems and Ged Kearney’s campaign have put the Greens on the back foot.
- Menzies: Liberal 7.9 per cent — It has not gained the same attention as Higgins and Kooyong. Conservative Kevin Andrews should add to his 28-year career despite GetUp! targeting him.
- Isaacs: Labor 2.3 per cent — It is hard to see Labor suffering a swing against them in Melbourne’s south-east as swings were positive at the state poll.
- Wills: Labor 4.9 per cent vs Greens — Labor should hold this seat. Like in Cooper, the Greens’ efforts in Melbourne’s inner-north have been hampered by internal issues.
- Goldstein: Liberal 12.7 per cent — This is a safe Liberal seat, but polling has shown there are potential issues. It is highly unlikely to fall.
- Mallee: Nationals 19.8 per cent — Nationals territory but the incumbent MP Andrew Broad is leaving politics in disgrace. An independent MP won Mildura in the state poll and results in NSW point to a problem for the Nationals.
- Hotham: Labor 4.2 per cent — It is marginal on paper, but Labor is in the box seat.
- Jagajaga: Labor 5 per cent
- McEwen: Labor 5.3 per cent
- Ballarat: Labor 7.4 per cent
- Corio: Labor 8.3 per cent
- Bruce: Labor 15.7 per cent
- Calwell: Labor 20.1 per cent
- Wannon: Liberal 9.3 per cent
- Monash (was McMillan): Liberal 7.6 per cent
- Holt: Labor 9.9 per cent
- Maribrynong: Labor 9.4 per cent
- Lalor: Labor 14.4 per cent
- Gorton: Labor 18.3 per cent
- Scullin: Labor 20.4 per cent
- Calwell: Labor 20.1 per cent
- Fraser: Labor 20.6 per cent
- Gippsland: Nationals 18.2 per cent
- Nicholls (was Murray): Nationals 22.3 per cent
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